Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Formin Homology 2 Domain Containing 3 (FHOD3) Is a Genetic Basis for Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND: The genetic cause of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy remains unexplained in a substantial proportion of cases. Formin homology 2 domain containing 3 (FHOD3) may have a role in the pathogenesis of cardiac hypertrophy but has not been implicated in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the relation between FHOD3 mutations and the development of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. METHODS: FHOD3 was sequenced by massive parallel sequencing in 3,189 hypertrophic cardiomyopathy unrelated probands and 2,777 patients with no evidence of cardiomyopathy (disease control subjects). The authors evaluated protein-altering candidate variants in FHOD3 for cosegregation, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. RESULTS: The authors identified 94 candidate variants in 132 probands. The variants' frequencies were significantly higher in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (74 of 3,189 [2.32%]) than in disease control subjects (18 of 2,777 [0.65%]; p < 0.001) or in the gnomAD database (1,049 of 138,606 [0.76%]; p < 0.001). FHOD3 mutations cosegregated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in 17 families, with a combined logarithm of the odds score of 7.92, indicative of very strong segregation. One-half of the disease-causing variants were clustered in a small conserved coiled-coil domain (amino acids 622 to 655); odds ratio for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was 21.8 versus disease control subjects (95% confidence interval: 1.3 to 37.9; p < 0.001) and 14.1 against gnomAD (95% confidence interval: 6.9 to 28.7; p < 0.001). Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients carrying (likely) pathogenic mutations in FHOD3 (n = 70) were diagnosed after age 30 years (mean 46.1 ± 18.7 years), and two-thirds (66%) were males. Of the patients, 82% had asymmetric septal hypertrophy (mean 18.8 ± 5 mm); left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was present in 14% and hypertrabeculation in 16%. Events were rare before age 30 years, with an annual cardiovascular death incidence of 1% during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: FHOD3 is a novel disease gene in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, accounting for approximately 1% to 2% of cases. The phenotype and the rate of cardiovascular events are similar to those reported in unselected cohorts. The FHOD3 gene should be routinely included in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy genetic testing panels

The Calcineurin Variant CnAβ1 controls mouse embryonic stem cell differentiation by directing mTORC2 membrane localization and activation

Embryonic stem cells (ESC) have the potential to generate all the cell lineages that form the body. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying ESC differentiation and especially the role of alternative splicing in this process remain poorly understood. Here, we show that the alternative splicing regulator MBNL1 promotes generation of the atypical calcineurin Aβ variant CnAβ1 in mouse ESCs (mESC). CnAβ1 has a unique C-terminal domain that drives its localization mainly to the Golgi apparatus by interacting with Cog8. CnAβ1 regulates the intracellular localization and activation of the mTORC2 complex. CnAβ1 knockdown results in delocalization of mTORC2 from the membrane to the cytoplasm, inactivation of the AKT/GSK3β/β-catenin signaling pathway, and defective mesoderm specification. In summary, here we unveil the structural basis for the mechanism of action of CnAβ1 and its role in the differentiation of mESCs to the mesodermal lineage